Posted: December 31st, 2009 | Author: More | Filed under: Election - Westminster, Politics | Tags: 2010, Election, Election 2010, predictions | 3 Comments »
- The election will be held on May 10th 2010. The result will be a small Conservative majority. Shortly afterwards, Gordon Brown will stand down, taking up a teaching position at the University of Edinburgh.
- The next leader of the Labour Party will be David Miliband or Harriet Harman. Either one will fill a similar function to William Hague during the Tory wilderness years, which is largely why neither one of them should be made leader.
- The SNP will take 16 seats in Westminster. This will be at the expense of the Lib Dems, leaving Scotland dominated by Labour and the SNP and paving the way for a two-way battle for the Scottish Parliament in 2011.
- The Conservatives will lose their only current Scottish seat, but gain two other Border seats.
- The economic problems faced by the UK will peak during the summer, with a slow return towards growth in the run up to Christmas 2010. Unemployment will continue to grow, peaking above 3 million. The next big jump in employment figures will be in January and then again in June/July/August as a new batch of students graduate.
- Leadership Changes: Gordon Brown, Iain Grey, Nick Clegg, Tavish Scott and Annabel Goldie will all face challenges to their positions over the next 12 months.
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A general election on a Monday? I'd say that's about as likely as the SNP making gains at the expense of the Lib Dems:-)
To be honest, I picked the 10th without looking at a calendar as a date that was close to the 6th but wasn't he 6th.. I probably lucky I didn't pick a Sunday. I do think Brown will avoid that date though. It's too close to May 2nd 1997 and May 5th 2005, both of which were heralded as historic victories. The press would have a field day with negative headlines.
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