And So It Begins – Election 2010

The dissolution of Parliament remains at least a month and a half away if the March 25th election day predictions are to be believed. Yet today sees the Observer reporting that the Conservative Party are preparing to begin their election campaign on the 4th of Janurary.

I believe this piece is probably correct and sheds light on a few of the goings on in the blogosphere in the last few days. In a possibly linked series of events, this story follows a lunch hosted for Tory bloggers on the 15th which was apparently misreported by the New Statesman, a blog post by publisher and Tory blogger Iain Dale (who was not at said lunch but who’s employee, Shane Greer, was) lauching an opening salvo against Labour MP and digital communications advisor Kerry McCarthy and a sustained twitter campaign led by blogger Tory Bear, including the creation of a “Kerry Out” website due to launch on the 4th.

All of this has a number of implications for the parties.

The biggest potential implication is that this could devastate turnout, in particular if the election is in May rather then March. The British public have reacted unfavourably to negative and extended campaigns in the past, generally by not voting at all. This would affect all of the parties, with fewer swing voters coming out and probably a number of supporters becoming disillusioned by the campaigning.

By launching an early campaign at the cost of half a million quid, the Tory Party is putting it’s money where it’s mouth is as far as the date of the election is concerned. If, as some believe, it does not occur during March, then the Tories will have spent a considerable sum on what may be a temporary poll boost. Alternatively, they face draining the party coffers to maintain a PR blitz, which again has the potential effect of turning off voters. The negative, attack based tactics against Ms McCarthy, if they become more wide-spread, form a risky path.

Despite an early Tory Campaign, Labour still hold the ball. There are three potential paths they can take with it: call a snap election in February, call an election in March/April after getting some of the legislative agenda through or hold off until May, draining Tory resources. However, the Labour Party probably can’t afford to fight an extended election campaign, with their party debt increasing.

For small parties (and possibly the Lib Dems) the effects of an extended campaign could be rather bad. With no-where near the budget of Labour and the Tories, it’s likely that the Greens, BNP, Respect and UKIP would be unable to campaign early on, potentially giving the big three an opportunity to marginalise them further.

For the SNP, I doubt this will have much effect. The Tories are still facing utterly dismal polls in Scotland and a poster campaign is unlikely to make much difference. Given that Alex Salmond is currently on top form politically, managing to beat off all opposition and bad PR news, the party is currently in a comfortable position. The push for a referendum will probably help and harm the SNP equally, but a lot of that depends on Labour’s campaigning and the SNP’s reaction to it.

The first 6 months of 2010 are going to be occupied with one thing: the election. Better get used to it folks, it’s going to be a very long, very nasty year.