Con-Dem Nation – What Have The Lib Dems Got?

Both the media and the Lib Dems have been making a lot about how much they’ve managed to get in the coalition agreement, despite the fact that the three great offices of state – Home Secretary, Chancellor of the Exchequer and Foreign Secretary – are held by Tories. Contrast, if you will, the coalition agreement between Labour and the Lib Dems in Scotland, which saw Jim Wallace as Deputy First Minister and Justice Secretary plus an additional Lib Dem cabinet member. Nick Clegg’s position, like that of John Prescott before him, is largely a vanity position, coming with an overblown salary and no remit other then to fill in for David Cameron when he’s on holiday or otherwise engaged.

So, other then that, what have the Lib Dems managed to gain in their coalition agreement? I’m going to run through the various areas of the agreement, starting with the Environment, looking at how the agreement reflects the manifesto pledges.

Environment

This is the last, and possibly longest of the sections of the agreement, which is surprising given that the environment was barely touched on during the election.

Many of the measures are actually policies from the previous government. These include the creation of a green investment bank, investment in tidal power, creation of a smart Grid and roll-out of smart meters, creation of a national network to charge electric cars. Largely these are shared between both the manifestos (as well as Labour’s). What isn’t shared with Labour is the commitment to scrap Heathrow’s third run-way, a commitment not to expand Gatwick or Stanstead airports and a stronger committment to creating a high speed rail network.

The key part is the policy on nuclear power. In the Tory manifesto, they state:

…we will take steps to encourage new low carbon energy production, including[...] clearing the way for new nuclear power stations – providing they receive no public subsides.

The coalition agreement states:

Liberal Democrats have long opposed any new nuclear construction. Conservatives, by contrast, are committed to allowing the replacement of existing nuclear power stations provided they are subject to the normal planning process for major projects (under a new national planning statement) and provided also that they receive no public subsidy.

We have agreed a process that will allow Liberal Democrats to maintain their opposition to nuclear power while permitting the government to bring forward the national planning statement for ratification by Parliament so that new nuclear construction becomes possible.

This process will involve:

- the government completing the drafting of a national planning statement and putting it before Parliament;

- specific agreement that a Liberal Democrat spokesman will speak against the planning statement, but that Liberal Democrat MPs will abstain; and

- clarity that this will not be regarded as an issue of confidence.

Effectively, the Lib Dems, the only party other then the SNP who have had such a sustained objection to nuclear power have agreed to allow the Tories to create as many new nuclear facilities as they wish by abstaining from any vote. Coupled with the removal of their objection to trident, removal of their commitment to £400 million of investment in shipyards to allow them to retool and removal of their objection to coal fired power stations, the Lib Dems have truly sold out on their environmental commitments. The Scottish Greens are already offering a free year’s membership to defecting Lib Dem and Labour members.

Deficit Reduction

We now know Saint Cable of Red Road is the next Secetary for Business (and possibly the only Lib Dem in Cabinet with a real job). This adequately reflects the Lib Dem contribution to the deficit reduction portion of the coalition agreement.

By and large, the first section of coalition agreement has been lifted from the Tory manifesto. There is no mention of the £15 billion in savings which were touted by the Lib Dems during the debates. The opposition to the National Insurance increase, reductions to Child Trust Fund spending and tax credits for high earners are all from the Tories.

The full details of the deficit reduction plan will be revealed in an emergency budget in ±50 days times. Another Conservative policy.

Political Reform

This is very much the raison d’etra of the Liberal Democratic Party. They are to proportional representation what the SNP is to independence. So then, you might expect PR to be high on the list of concessions. It is not.

There are two Tory concessions to the Lib Dems in this area. The first is a commitment to a referenda on Alternative Vote. Alternative Vote is not a proportional system however, it’s first-past-the-post on steroids. Instead of making a cross, you rank candidates. The candidate with the lowest number of votes has their votes redistributed until one candidate has 50% of the vote. Such a system could make it near impossible for anyone other then the SNP, Plaid, Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories to gain seats. The Tories reserve the right to campaign against this referendum.

The second concessions is a very small one indeed. A committee will be established to looking at creating a second chamber elected by PR. This is no guarantee this will reach law, be supported by the Conservatives or otherwise gain government support.

There are several other interesting items on political reform, however given the chilling implications they have for the British Constitution, they are best discussed separately at a later date. Suffice to say that allow a glimpse into the dark heart of truly right-wing coalition.

Overall…

I am left with the feeling that the Lib Dems think that they have gained something when they have gained pitifully little. A vanity job with a big cheque, two middling cabinet positions, an out-dated relic of a position which the Libs want to abolish and number two to a many even the Tory grassroots don’t trust with the economy (in a cabinet which is all white and nearly all male) are not worth selling the farm on, yet that is what the Liberal Democrats have done.

There is little in the coalition agreement which was in their manifesto. Commitments to cancel projects have been dropped, commitments against nuclear power and nuclear weapons have been dropped, commitments on reform have been watered down to an extent that they will be useless or padded with weasel words. There is nothing here which could not have been achieved through case-by-case support. Nick Clegg has led the Lib Dems into a toxic coalition in which his party have gained next to nothing. In 2011 and 2015, the Lib Dems will reap the rewards for their leader’s great folly.

Further reading on the Civil Liberty aspect of the agreement can be found here.

Con-Dem Nation – Where Now For Scotland?

Today is the first day of the next five years. Surely a truism, but in this case apt, given David Cameron has announced that, barring unforeseen circumstances, the next general election will take place on Thursday 7th of May 2015, the same day as the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections. Leaving aside the potential implications of holding three important elections on the same day (and the mess that resulted when local authority and Scottish Parliament elections were held on the same day in 2007), we must now examine what the next five years holds for Scotland.

Critically, we know that the Scottish Office will remain in existence, but with post of Secretary of State for Scotland removed from the Cabinet. This will be held by Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem MP for Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey.

Alexander appears to be largely a non-entity within the Lib Dems. His history is similar to that of Nick Clegg, having occupied various positions within the Lib Dems prior to his election in 2005. His voting record is mixed, although his proximity to Nick Clegg and Vince Cable would suggest that he’s part of the free market liberal wing of the party rather then the left-leaning social democrat wing. Unlike Lib Dem celebrities such as Chris Huhne, Sarah Teather, and Jo Swinson, Alexander has largely avoided the glare of publicity, only coming to the public eye as a key member of the Lib Dem coalition negotiating team. While his seat is relatively safe, John Farquer Munro’s Holyrood seat, which overlaps with his, will almost certainly face a strong challenge from the SNP as they seek to extend their heartlands into the Highlands.

Labour have yet to announce the composition of a Shadow Cabinet, however it can be expected that Jim Murphy will serve as Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland until a new Labour leader is appointed. Following that time, there are plenty of candidates for the job: Douglas Alexander, Jim Murphy, Ann McKechin, Margaret Curran, Cathy Jamison.

Policy-wise, Scotland is still going to be hit by swinging cuts. Now, there is no way to prevent this. However, there is a carrot with the stick. The Calman Commission recommendations will be implemented in full, granting Holyrood borrowing powers and moderately increased fiscal autonomy. This will likely enjoy cross party support, albeit with the SNP caveat that it does not go far enough and that a referendum on Devolution Max and Independence must be held.

The reasons for wholesale adoption of the Calman are clear and simple. The SNP and Scottish Labour are both spinning a very popular line about the Tories having no mandate to rule in Scotland. As we build towards the Holyrood election, that’s going to turn towards the Lib Dems and the Tories being one and the same. If that is successful, the SNP and Labour stand a good chance of removing several Lib Dem MSPs from Holyrood. In order to prevent this, the Lib Dems need to be able to show they are working for Scotland in some way. If Nicol Stephens’ assertion that only a third of the Scottish Lib Dems support the coalition is accurate, then they also need to ensure that those Lib Dems leaning towards Labour, the SNP or the Greens (both inside and outside of the party) stay on board.

As far as independence sentiment goes, I suspect that it’s already seen a large increase, possibly as much as 10 points. I look forward to the next IPSOS-Mori Scottish opinion poll, which tracks independence sentiment amongst other things.

I will finish with a particularly poignant quote from Dame Shirley Williams, one of the founders of the SDP and the Liberal Democrats: “…if we do make a deal with the Tories, we are handing Scotland to the SNP on a plate.” She’s quite correct – the chances of a second SNP government now seem extremely high indeed.

The Red Pill or The Blue Pill

The Liberal Democrats are in a historic position. The choices they make over the next few days will set the political agenda for years to come.

Should they go into coalition with Labour, Plaid, the SDLP, Alliance and the Greens, they will be lambasted by the right for propping up an unpopular government who helped to place the UK at the heart of the economic crisis. This rainbow coalition would be forced to make some of the most sweeping cuts in British history, tarring both Labour and the Lib Dems.

The idea that such a coalition would last four to five years is fantasy. Sooner of later, there would be a sufficiently large rebellion which would manage to either pass or nearly pass a vote of no confidence. If indications from John Reid, Tom Harris and David Cairns are anything to go by, the rebellion would likely be over a referendum on implementing a  single-member constituency single transferable vote election system. It is even possible that some of those who are more resolute in their opposition to coalition and on the right of the Labour party, such as Tom Harris, could defect.

Either way, I would suggest that the long-term outcome of such a parliament would be a Tory majority in the next election, a slashed Lib Dem vote share and Labour heading to the political wilderness.

The alternative is coalition with Tories. This has the potential for the creation of a stable government which would require the whole of the Lib Dem parliamentary party to cross the benches in order to pass a vote of no confidence. However, the Lib Dems face both a voter rebellion and a grassroots rebellion if they support the Tories. Over the past few days, I’ve seen Lib Dem voters, mainly young people, go through various stages of anger and disappointment at the positive progress made between the Tories and the Lib Dems in coalition talks. This is just a taste of what could happen.

The Tories would also face a backlash against the ‘age of austerity’ promised by David Cameron, as cuts begin to fall across all areas of government. That could usher in either another hung parliament in the future or a Labour government. They’d also face alienating the right of their party by making concessions to the Lib Dems. Lord Tebbit has already positioned himself as a cheerleader on that matter, and no doubt figures such as the US-style neo-con MEP Dan Hannan will be able to rally voters against coalition.

And which option is best for the United Kingdom?

Truthfully, neither of them. Like the Lib Dems, the UK is stuck either way. There isn’t a right answer, just two wrong ones.

And what of the the SNP and Scotland? Well, the party has made it clear that coalition with the Tories is not an option. Douglas Alexander, Tom Harris, Jim Murphy and others within Labour have rather foolishly made it clear that they are unwilling to work with the SNP at all. No doubt this will have repercussions, when, in just under a year, we elect a new Scottish Parliament.

Thoughts on The Week in Politics

This week is the last full week of campaigning before election day. Nationally, I think it’s probably been one of the least dramatic week of the election so far. Still there have been some interesting happenings.

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The big news in Scotland was the SNP seeking a Court of Session injunction against the BBC on the basis that the broadcast of the Leaders Debate was a breach of it’s impartiality and public service rules. This legal action, despite being rejected is almost certainly a success story for the party. It helped the SNP to build their vision of being Scotland’s champions and kept the party in news (or at least slightly more in the news given the extent BBC Scotland has been ignoring them) for several days. Together with the threat of similar action from UKIP, it should also have demonstrated to the BBC that the current debate style is not sustainable.

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On the other hand, the latest poll of Westminster voting intentions in Scotland from Populous and The Times does not do the SNP many favours.

Labour – 37% (-3%)
Lib Dem – 24% (+1%)
SNP – 19% (+2%)
Con – 16% (-)

It does, in fact, chime nicely with a downward trend in the SNP’s vote share for Westminster which has been charted by IPSOS-Mori’s quarterly Scottish Opinion Monitor polls since November. There are several things to bare in mind however – both the SNP have been heavily targeting a small number of constituencies which may have harmed national vote share while increasing local vote share, 19% is still better then the party’s result in 2005 (if not as good as 2007) and many people who vote for the SNP in Holyrood elections favour one of the other parties in Westminster.

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On the streets in Edinburgh, the SNP seems to be doing well. There are plenty of anecdotes going round on the theme of “I’ve always voted Labour, but I think I might vote SNP this time…”. Party canvassers are also reporting high levels of support in Edinburgh East, which will hopefully ensure it becomes the SNP’s eighth seat. There is, however, everything to play for yet and it’s far too close to say that East will definitely turn.

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The final leaders debate was an unappetising affair. I suspect demand would have been sated with a single debate, not least because the second two have been utterly lacking in substance. Once again, Scots generally seem to thing Brown won or the SNP won, Tories think Cameron won and Lib Dems think Clegg won. Nothing has changed the game this time, not least because all three leaders wobbled frantically between left- and right-wing economic and immigration policy.

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On the immigration note, I don’t think I’ve ever met someone who thinks immigration is the biggest issue facing Britain today. Is this because of Scotland, because of my generation or just because the media give too much publicity to those who are anti-immigration?

I’m A Nat And So’s My Wife!

The SNP has published a rather good video about Nats, who we and why we believe in independence.

A stunning viral video has also appeared online explaining how to beat down pesky Nats. It highlights many of the arguments which are wheeled out time and time again against the SNP and other pro-indpendence groups.

Blogging over the next 11 days is going to be quite light. I’m currently dedicating my time to making sure Calum Cashley (PPC for Edinburgh North & Leith) gets the 7,000 votes needed to oust the Labour incumbent.