The Liberal Democrats are in a historic position. The choices they make over the next few days will set the political agenda for years to come.
Should they go into coalition with Labour, Plaid, the SDLP, Alliance and the Greens, they will be lambasted by the right for propping up an unpopular government who helped to place the UK at the heart of the economic crisis. This rainbow coalition would be forced to make some of the most sweeping cuts in British history, tarring both Labour and the Lib Dems.
The idea that such a coalition would last four to five years is fantasy. Sooner of later, there would be a sufficiently large rebellion which would manage to either pass or nearly pass a vote of no confidence. If indications from John Reid, Tom Harris and David Cairns are anything to go by, the rebellion would likely be over a referendum on implementing a single-member constituency single transferable vote election system. It is even possible that some of those who are more resolute in their opposition to coalition and on the right of the Labour party, such as Tom Harris, could defect.
Either way, I would suggest that the long-term outcome of such a parliament would be a Tory majority in the next election, a slashed Lib Dem vote share and Labour heading to the political wilderness.
The alternative is coalition with Tories. This has the potential for the creation of a stable government which would require the whole of the Lib Dem parliamentary party to cross the benches in order to pass a vote of no confidence. However, the Lib Dems face both a voter rebellion and a grassroots rebellion if they support the Tories. Over the past few days, I’ve seen Lib Dem voters, mainly young people, go through various stages of anger and disappointment at the positive progress made between the Tories and the Lib Dems in coalition talks. This is just a taste of what could happen.
The Tories would also face a backlash against the ‘age of austerity’ promised by David Cameron, as cuts begin to fall across all areas of government. That could usher in either another hung parliament in the future or a Labour government. They’d also face alienating the right of their party by making concessions to the Lib Dems. Lord Tebbit has already positioned himself as a cheerleader on that matter, and no doubt figures such as the US-style neo-con MEP Dan Hannan will be able to rally voters against coalition.
And which option is best for the United Kingdom?
Truthfully, neither of them. Like the Lib Dems, the UK is stuck either way. There isn’t a right answer, just two wrong ones.
And what of the the SNP and Scotland? Well, the party has made it clear that coalition with the Tories is not an option. Douglas Alexander, Tom Harris, Jim Murphy and others within Labour have rather foolishly made it clear that they are unwilling to work with the SNP at all. No doubt this will have repercussions, when, in just under a year, we elect a new Scottish Parliament.
Four days have now passed since three potential Prime Ministers stood-up in front of the country and said their piece. With the resulting news cycle now largely over, and Monday’s polls in, it’s extremely clear that the face of UK politics may be about to change.
Given that polls for previous weeks had the Tories creeping up to 40%, Others at between 13% and 18% and the Lib Dems around the 20% mark, it is clearly a significant change. However, as has been much discussed over the past few days, the Lib Dems are crippled by having their support evenly spread. The result of this is that despite this boost, it’s predicted the Lib Dems will only achieve ±100 seats despite their share of the national vote. Of course, this would still almost guarantee the Lib Dems a place as a coalition partner in the 2010 parliament.
Things, however, often don’t work out that way. In ’92 it was predicted, first that there would be a hung parliament, then that Labour under Kinnock would narrowly scrape a majority. The election saw the Tories barely achieve a majority and the Lib Dems and SNP, both of whom had been polling favourably, were left out in the cold with a handful of MPs.
Likewise, in ’97, Labour and the Lib Dems were so sure that they would achieve a hung parliament that coalition agreements were drawn up between Labour and the Lib Dems. In the event, we witnessed what may have turned out to be one of the most damaging events in British political history: the Labour Landslide.
The Lib Dems and their supports would do well to remember how fickle politics can be. After all, we have 16 days left until the election and with the three parties so closely tied there is a lot to play for. As easily as poll boost came, it could go again. So, how can the Lib Dems prevent being locked out of government?
Well, first of all, Clegg now needs to perform superbly on the next two debates. The first debate was a clear catalyst for the Lib Dem vote and the follow-ups should be able to maintain and if possible even boost the vote. Clegg does already have some advantage here – in the debate on foreign policy, he’s got the Lib Dem anti-war stance and opposition to Trident to fall back on. Brown and Cameron will likely find it difficult to tackle him on either of these issues given their support for the war and the cost of Trident. Cameron will be making much of his not-too-fond-of-Europe credentials, trying to wheedle voters from UKIP, while Brown and Clegg will be standing on a pro-EU platform.
In the debate on economic policy, Brown and Cameron will likely find it much easier to tackle Clegg. While Clegg does have the talent of the sainted Vince Cable to hand, these views have been highly publicised and it will be easy enough for both Brown and Cameron to work to discredit them in the debate. Indeed, of the three debates, this may be the least significant due to the simple fact that it’s seeking to make highly technical and very dry policy accessable to the public.
At the same time, the Lib Dems also have to weather attacks (some of them very personal) which are getting ever more bitter. So far both David Cameron and Gordon Brown have launched attacks on Clegg, the right-wing press and (depending on the editor’s mood) the left-wing press. The only person who doesn’t seem to have attempted to put the boot is Vince Cable. It’s rather symbolic of the lack of respect in modern politics that the leader of a party with a good few seats is treated as a national joke. Of course, the longer the attacks on the Lib Dems go on and the longer that Labour and the Tories ignore each other, then the more that it looks like a concerted smear campaign against the Lib Dems, which will probably not play well with the electorate.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the next 16 days play out, how the balance of power is spread on May 7th and how events following that play out. A Lib Dem coalition is an interesting and attractive idea. With their progressive agenda, the Lib Dems are well placed to initiate reform which would benefit smaller parties, Scotland and the UK as a whole. But the question remains, who should the Lib Dems prop-up: the party whose supporters are calling for Labour to be destroyed forever, who destroyed British industry and left Scotland with decades of social problems, or the party who took us into two questionable wars, failed to deal sufficiently with the crippling social problems and who introduced horrific anti-terror laws?
I was recently conversing with a friend from the Republic of China regarding the election. He was both astonished and unconvinced that rallies and large protests no longer form part of the election make-up in the UK.
To prove the points he was making, he sent me a video of an election rally by the DPP, a liberal Taiwanese political party. I don’t know what the subject matter is, but the speaker shows clear passion and the crowd is massive
I believe it’s been many years since similar events played a big part in elections in the UK. The closest examples I can think of in recent years are Blair’s victory celebrations in ’97, Major’s Soapbox speeches in ’92 and the bi-yearly conferences held by the political parties. Even the cars with loud-speakers strapped to their roofs which were a mainstay of campaigning in the 70s and 80s are a thing of the past now.
Maybe we’re taking a page from the wrong place by adopting American practises? Perhaps we should be looking to Europe and Asia instead.
At the very least, we could look at backing press conferences with dramatic music.
Due to other commitments, I was unable to take time to read the Labour manifesto (the actual one, not the cartoon version) on it’s day of launch (although I did have time to look at the cover). By the time I got sat down with the document in question, I’d already read comments in the papers and online about the manifesto, which led me to expect much more meat in the manifesto then I found there.
I was expecting policy to leap out at me, things that Labour candidates on the doorstep could point swing voters to as something which would aim to visibly change things for the better and make a snappy soundbite, similar to Tony Blair’s Tough on Crime message in 1997. Instead we have pages of promises of investment and admendments to older Labour policies, such as shaking up the hospital system again.
A few policies take my interest however:
No Stamp Duty for first time buyers on all house purchases below £250,000 for two years, paid for by a five per cent rise on homes worth more then £1 million. – I find it hard to fault this policy, given that the house prices in Scotland are considerably lower then elsewhere and this could really help get people into the housing market up here.
Legally binding guarantees for patients including the right to cancer test results within one week of referral, and a maximum of 18 weeks’ wait for treatment or the offer of going private. - This goal can’t really be faulted given that cancer is one of the biggest killers in the UK, however the legally binding aspect of it could increase difficulties for already over-streched NHS resources.
A new national care service to ensure free care in the home for those with the greatest care needs and a cap on the costs of residential care so that everyone’s homes and savings are protected from care charges after two years in a care home. – This could have been a much larger part of Labour’s manifesto, but seems to have been scaled down, probably due to questions over funding it.
Achieve around 40 per cent low-carbon electricity by 2020 and create 400,000 new green jobs by 2013. - This policy (like much of the green policy in the Labour manifesto) is largely due to targets set in international treaty, which DEFRA is already on target to meet.
Referenda, held on the same day, for moving to the Alternative Vote for elections to the House of Commons and to a democratic and accountable Second Chamber. - Gordon Brown has already come under fire for his damascene conversion to constitutional reform. It will be extremely interesting to see if it appeals to voters, after all, the Lib Dems have had limited success with their similar policies in the past.
Legislation to ensure Parliaments sit for a fixed term and an All Party Commission to chart a course ti a Written Constitution. - Fixed term Parliament and a written constitution are much needed in Britain. They are unlikely to have great appeal to the British public however, with vocal support for a constitutional generally coming from academics and those who are extremely familiar with politics in the UK.
A few things I was genuinely surprised to see:
Control immigration through our Australian-style points-based system, ensuring that as growth returns we see rising levels of employment and wages, not rising immigration, and requiring newcomers to earn citizenship and the entitlements it brings. – I am extremely dubious about any political party rushing into immigration policy or taking an election stand on it, not least when they trumpet “British Values” as a reason to exclude people from the UK. This policy could only to extend immigrants from countries outside the EU and possibly the Commonwealth.
A golden decade of sport with the 2012 Olympics as a great national and world-wide celebration. - True, the UK is hosting the 2012 Olympics, 2014 Commonwealth Games and 2015 Rugby World Cup, but this policy has very little other then new facilities in London and increased sports in schools in England and Wales to back it up.
Reform the UN, International Financial Institutions, the G8 and G20 and NATO to adapt to the new global challenges. - Britain is one of nearly 200 states participating in the UN. As COP-15 demonstrated, Britain isn’t even a particularly big player in the modern world, with India, China and the collective EU providing much stronger voices. The idea that Britain could drive pretty far reaching reform of these bodies within the next five years, having done little to them since 1997, is utterly absurd.
Overall, the Labour Manifesto for England and Wales is a document which seems lacking in style and substance. Compared to previous Labour manifestos, it seems that having been in government for 13 years, Labour are struggling to find policies to engage with the public on. If swing voters do pick up a copy of the Labour manifesto, I think they’ll have to look hard to find something to convince them to vote Labour.
Recently, I was sitting in a pub with a friend where we ended up riffing on BBC News 24′s coverage of the election. He pointed out that in past elections, the BBC (and other media outlets) often included the SNP and Plaid Cymru in predictions and polls as the forth category, with Others reserved for independents and the Greens.
It’s easy to understand why the BBC isn’t using this kind of arrangement in the 2010 election: as soon as the BBC recognise the SNP as being significant in British politics, the arguments for excluding the SNP and Plaid from the leaders debates fall down. Joan McAlpine, who I find myself linking to with ever increasing frequency as the election goes on, has also tackled the issue, pointing out the corporation’s lack of coverage in Scotland despite having an impartial national politics editor.
Of course, the entire corporation can’t be tarred with the same brush. The Vote Now Show, a satirical reaction to the day’s politics from Hugh Dennis, Steve Punt, Jon Holmes, Mitch Benn and guests, found time to dedicate an entire joke to the SNP:
“…And lets not forget the SNP manifesto, the contents of which are a bit like the contents of a haggis. If you’re not Scottish, you’re better off not knowing”
Quite. As Alex Neill said at the SNP spring conference, if people in England knew more about the SNP policies, they’d be voting for us as well.
