Raging Against The Westminster Machine

The Westminster Machine has long been a figure within SNP campaigns, and going on Alex Salmond’s speech today, it looks like we’ll be raging against it this year. Maybe not the best slogan to launch a campaign on given Rage Against The Machine’s foul-mouthed, hard left (although generally extremely good) material, but the SNP have about as much claim to it as Labour do in this day and age. Still, it does work for the party – after all, the SNP played a big part in the initial efforts to get expenses released under Freedom of Information and in the attempt to impeach Tony Blair while being one of the few groups in Parliament to voice opinion against the war in Iraq. No doubt we’ll be hearing more about those as the election goes on.

The meat of the campaign sounds like it could be quite convincing for those outside the party. Following on from previous campaigns focused on “Scotland’s Voice”, the emphasis this year is on Local Champions representing the people. Given the tendency amongst Labour and the Tories to parachute in candidates from outside local areas and anointing the favoured candidates, it could resonate well with a Scotland which is dissatisfied with the way in which politics has been working at Westminster.

The Local Champions theme also looks at returning a voice to the people in a constituency. Having never lived in a constituency with an SNP MP, I can’t comment directly on how much interaction there is between SNP parliamentarians and their constituents, but a number of SNP MSPs do go out of their way to keep in touch with constituents. As I wrote recently, I believe that MPs should be doing more to represent their constituents, not blindly following the party whip. I believe the SNP, which is a broad kirk, is in a position to do this, although I suspect that many hardened voters will fail to look past party lines.

The remainder of the speech deals mostly with economic issues and the idea of “More Nats, Less Cuts”. This is a great way to campaign about Scotland specifically without using issues which are explicitly the preserve of Holyrood, because no matter who becomes First Minister in 2011, they are going to be facing the worst cuts Scotland has seen in generations, possibly coupled with a second, worse recession. The proposed Tory ‘Age of Austerity’ could well see the UK end up in a similar position to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. It’s the job of the SNP (and all of the Scottish parties) to ensure that doesn’t happen and that we rebuild the economy on a solid foundation before we deal with the deficit, or if not that, at least remind George Osbourne and Alastair Darling to have a glance over the works of J. M. Keynes.

This is an excellent start to the SNP’s election campaign. With Labour and Tory efforts already flagging in Scotland, it shouldn’t be hard to gain the momentum and keep it going until May 6th. Keeping the Rage Against the Machine theme going, 2010 is the year when we’re going to be taking the power back.

Has Devolution Changed Electioneering?

The long term consequences of devolution are still something that we aren’t fully aware of. A week may be a long time in politics, but it’s taken more then a decade for political scientists to be able to even start firmly evaluating how devolution has changed Scotland and Wales in the longer trem (Northern Ireland, in this case, stands alone, with a much more complex situation).

One change that is becoming apparently in the run up to the 2010 election is electioneering.

In years gone by, electioneering could be targeted at nearly the whole of the UK. After all, the Scottish and Welsh Offices existed to come up with ways to adapt policy to the nations without compromising it.

Today, that’s no longer the case. The Scottish Parliament controls the majority of traditional election issues, including health, education, justice, policing and transport. The Welsh Assembly is rapidly moving toward similar arrangements with a lot of control in many areas, while Northern Ireland is functionally independent in many areas. Consequently, the big three political parties are having a few problems.

Right now, the Conservatives are probably the party which is finding these problems hardest to deal with. Looking at the draft manifestos and speeches regularly issuing forth from Conservative Campaign Headquarters, there is little mention of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland or even England. Instead there is only repeated mentions of Britain (“Broken Britain”, “Britain Cannot Go On Like This”) and pledges made for the whole of the UK.

The most staggering UK-wide pledge of this sort was on the first Tory billboard campaign: “We can’t go on like this. We’ll cut the deficit, not NHS spending”. It’s very nice of the Tories to seek to cut the deficit, which does affect the whole country, but short of changing the Scotland Act or modifying the Block Grant so that money has to be spent by the Scottish Government on the NHS, there is nothing David Cameron can do to stop health cuts in Scotland if the ruling party so desired. His plans for local referendums on local issues in Scotland cannot be implemented without the agreement of the Government.

Labour have adapted to this in the past by campaigning on domestic issues, with the back-up of the Scottish Parliament, but no longer have that safe majority in Holyrood, a successful tactic in Glasgow North-East. It will be interesting to see how they tackle both the Tories in Scotland and the SNP’s campaign, which looks set to be based around independence and further devolution (or the lack thereof). At least one aspect of the campaign is simple political bribery, with Calman only being implemented after the election and a number of other policies promised, both UK-wide and specific to other areas of the country.

The Lib Dems have yet (as far as I know) to launch a campaign properly, either in Scotland or in the whole of the UK, but there have been reports of Lib Dem MPs and MSPs sending out leaflets via the Royal Mail. This possibly hints at a “think global, act local” style campaign with the emphasis on what Lib Dems are doing for the community rather then nationally. An excellent angle to take given Nick Clegg’s poor public image.

As Donald Dewar said, devolution is a process, not an event. It may well take another ten years for the UK political system to fully come to terms with the effects of devolution. It will be particularly interesting to see how electioneering continues to evolve.

Cameron’s Hypocrisy in Scotland

David Cameron has spent the past few days trying to get Scotland to play the same ball game he’s playing. The opening salvo in this play for less then a tenth of the Westminster seats in Scotland was an interview with the Herald prior to the Tory conference at Perth Ice Rink, followed by his keynote speech and new remarks in today’s papers.

Yet Cameron doesn’t seem to really know what to do with Scotland. It was only a few months ago that he denounced Alex Salmond for trying to get in on the leaders debates, and only a few days ago that he lambasted Salmond as “fooling no-one”. It’s somewhat ironic that a man who’s manifesto is largely based on abstract and ill-thought-out aims should be claiming that a man who has always been open about his key policy is attempting to fool anyone.

It’s even stranger that Cameron should want to deal with this fool, claiming:

If elected, one of the first things I will do is come to Scotland and meet with the First Minister. That will signal the beginning of a new relationship, a fresh start based on mutual respect. It will be good for Scotland, good for Britain and good for the Union. [Source]

Strangely, Donald Dewar, Henry McLeish, Jack MacConnell and Alex Salmond have all led functional governments without the Prime Minister sitting over their shoulder. Indeed, Dewar, MacConnell and Salmond have all gained reputations for for not pandering to Prime Ministers. But lets read on…

It’s a disgrace that during one of the worst economic crises in our modern history…when the foundations of the Scottish economy were rocked…Gordon Brown didn’t meet Alex Salmond for almost a year.

And it’s shameful that during one of the most emotionally-charged moments in our recent history…when the Lockerbie bomber was released from jail to return home to Libya where he still is today…the Scottish Government and British Government refused to cooperate. [Source]

Given the importance of the Banking Sector to Scotland, it probably would have been good to see more agreement between the two Governments during the fall of HBOS and RBS. However, by acting independently of each other Brown and Salmond were able to accomplish different tasks – Brown made provisions to ensure the banks didn’t simply get wiped from the face of the Earth, while Salmond worked with bankers in Scotland in an effort to ensure that jobs wouldn’t be lost and Edinburgh would remain a banking centre. Neither accomplished their goals fully, but with Brown approaching from the reserved, Treasury angle and Salmond approaching from the devolved business angle, it worked quite well. Probably far better and quicker then if protracted negotiations between Brown and Salmond had taken place.

As regards the Lockerbie Bomber, there was no need for the Scottish and British Governments to cooperate. There was no issue between Westminster and Holyrood. The Scottish Justice Minister made a decision about a prisoner in his custody, and Westminster has no more right to have a say in that then the Scottish Government has to have a say about the release of Ronnie Biggs (held in an English Prison and released by Home Secretary Alan Johnston).

This is starting to get a big worrying. It does look rather like David Cameron wants to interfere with the process of Government in Scotland. We’d better read on…

It should be natural for us to want devolution to work. Not just because it is a weapon against the Nationalists’ obsession with independence. But because devolution should be central to our whole political approach. [Source]

Oops. Clearly no-one told Cameron that he’s not actually meant to remind us that we only got devolution because of the SNP “threat”. A bit of an arrogant slip up, given that the first and last sentences in that quote are common sense. Does it possibly hint at the long awaited devolution for England?

Today we are the party that passionately believes that local is best, the party that knows that the more power people have, the more responsible they become, the more fulfilled they are…we are the party of decentralisation. [Source]

It’s nice of Cameron to acknowledge that Scotland has become more responsible. The decentralisation rhetoric will very likely come back to haunt him however, with it forming the perfect basis for an Alex Salmond speech. “David Cameron says the Tories are the party of decentralisation, well you don’t get much more decentralised then devolution max.”

Whoever is Scotland’s First Minister, I would be a Prime Minister who acts on the voice of the Scottish people and works for consent and consensus. And whenever the precious Union between our two countries is under threat, this party – the party of the Union – will rise to the challenge and defend it with all our heart and all our strength. [Source]

Party of Union the Tories may be, but this is one of the most contradictory portions of Cameron’s speech. Surely, if the people of Scotland want Independence, he has no mandate to stop them. Especially when you consider that he wants to…

[give] people the chance to make change happen through local referendums, giving neighbourhoods the right to run parks and public places. [Source]

But Scottish people won’t get the right to vote on their constitutional future?

Overall, Cameron doesn’t say much other then this hypocritical grandstanding. The one policy which is mentioned in the coverage is:

Councils will get “unprecedented freedom to do what they think is right for their area” [Source]

Given that Local Authorities are a devolved matter, this policy will have no effect in Scotland what so ever. It is mentioned in one of the other articles linked to that Cameron discussed the NHS in a speech at a Scottish press event, but this, likewise, is nearly entirely devolved. Cameron isn’t even able to come up with campaign issued which will affect the Scottish people.

Cameron doesn’t even try to hide his blatant hypocrisy. Despite the previous apologies for opposing devolution and the claims that devolution is part of British Politics, it seems clear that Cameron wants to interfere in a country where he has little support and no mandate to rule. With luck, he will find himself opposed by the three-headed hydra of the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems, because if there is one thing which will bring these three parties together for the good of Scotland, it’s the threat posed by David Cameron.

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It is worth noting that Cameron has also waded into the debate over Nicola Sturgeon, although he at least does so from a far more even manner then then Iain Gray and his cohorts. He even goes so far as to admit that he’s done similar things for constituents. It’s rather bizarre, given he’s spent two days lambasting Sturgeon’s superior.

Edit: Jeff at SNP tactical voting has commented further on Sturgeon and Cameron.

What Is David Cameron’s Real Approval Rating In Scotland?

Today, both Scotland on Sunday and the Sunday Herald reported the results of a private Tory Party poll. Conducted by Opinion Research Business, one of the less common polling organisations in Britain, it shows that in the 11 Scottish seats which the Tories are targeting, 54% of respondents believe that David Cameron should be the next Prime Minister with 46% for Gordon Brown. In a further question, 73% of respondents agreed that Labour was “tired and failing”.

This poll, despite being heralded as a boost for the Scottish Tories must be taken with a pinch of salt.

Unlike the polls regularly conducted by a selection of newspapers and TV stations, the full results of this poll have not been published. Neither has the text of the questions. Without the actual text of the questions, it is difficult to ascertain the potential bias brought about through the formation of the question or the weighting of results. All we have to go on as to ascertaining the full statistical relevance of this poll is the press release which was issued by Conservative HQ to various media outlets, but which was not made public.

From the Herald we can glean that the sample size was 1,010 and from Scotland on Sunday, that it was conducted only in the eleven Tory target constituencies, giving 91 respondents per constituency. Given that 1,000 respondents is a typical sample size for many polls conducted over the whole of the UK, this is a good sample size per constituency with a standard margin of error (±3%). However, given there are 59 Scottish constituencies, this cannot be said to be representative of all Scottish constituencies , with a large proportion of Scotland consisting of a very different economic and social make-up from these 11. Many of the other constituencies are also out-with the reach of the Tories, who are pressed into fourth or even fifth place in some seats.

So, can it be said that the Conservatives have received a boost in Scotland? Yes and no. They seem to be gaining more support in their target constituencies. This is unsurprising given their gains in England and Wales. Yet this does not accurately reflect the opinions of non-Labour and Tory supporters, with a 100% result for the main question not giving any option for “Neither” or “Nick Clegg”. There are also two interesting polls which can be used to illustrate the issues with this poll.

The first of these dates from September last year, assessing how the Scottish public believed Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Alex Salmond were doing in their jobs. It was conducted by YouGov with a sample of 1,000 people with results in percent of respondents. It does show that Cameron is ahead of Brown slightly as far as satisfaction goes, but Alex Salmond far out-strips them both.

The second is from a Ipsos Mori poll conducted in November which assessed voting intentions in Scotland. You can find the full report here, but in summery, it affirms that Labour and the SNP are the dominant parties in Scotland with more then twice the number of people intending to vote for the SNP or Labour then for the Tories in the next election. Those intending to vote for the Tories actually declines between 2006 and the end of 2009. 61% of respondents also favour a Labour Government on the basis that it would be better for Scotland then a Tory one.

The turning point for the Tories in Scotland isn’t here yet.

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For reference, the 11 Tory target constituencies are (in order from South to North): Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (Lib), Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con), Dumfries & Galloway (Lab), Renfrewshire East (Lab) Edinburgh South (Lab), Argyll & Bute (Lib), Stirling (Lab), Ochil and South Perthshire (Lab), Perth & North Perthshire (SNP), Angus (SNP). They are all reasonably wealthy areas, many of them reliant on farming and tourism to drive the local economy. Many of them were also held by Tories prior to the 1997 Labour landslide. Jeff at SNP Tactical Voting has discussed the margins and the potential tactical voting opportunities in depth.

2010 Predictions

• The election will be held on May 10th 2010. The result will be a small Conservative majority. Shortly afterwards, Gordon Brown will stand down, taking up a teaching position at the University of Edinburgh.

• The next leader of the Labour Party will be David Miliband or Harriet Harman. Either one will fill a similar function to William Hague during the Tory wilderness years, which is largely why neither one of them should be made leader.

• The SNP will take 16 seats in Westminster. This will be at the expense of the Lib Dems, leaving Scotland dominated by Labour and the SNP and paving the way for a two-way battle for the Scottish Parliament in 2011.

• The Conservatives will lose their only current Scottish seat, but gain two other Border seats.

• The economic problems faced by the UK will peak during the summer, with a slow return towards growth in the run up to Christmas 2010. Unemployment will continue to grow, peaking above 3 million. The next big jump in employment figures will be in January and then again in June/July/August as a new batch of students graduate.

• Leadership Changes: Gordon Brown, Iain Grey, Nick Clegg, Tavish Scott and Annabel Goldie will all face challenges to their positions over the next 12 months.