This week is the last full week of campaigning before election day. Nationally, I think it’s probably been one of the least dramatic week of the election so far. Still there have been some interesting happenings.
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The big news in Scotland was the SNP seeking a Court of Session injunction against the BBC on the basis that the broadcast of the Leaders Debate was a breach of it’s impartiality and public service rules. This legal action, despite being rejected is almost certainly a success story for the party. It helped the SNP to build their vision of being Scotland’s champions and kept the party in news (or at least slightly more in the news given the extent BBC Scotland has been ignoring them) for several days. Together with the threat of similar action from UKIP, it should also have demonstrated to the BBC that the current debate style is not sustainable.
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On the other hand, the latest poll of Westminster voting intentions in Scotland from Populous and The Times does not do the SNP many favours.
Labour – 37% (-3%)
Lib Dem – 24% (+1%)
SNP – 19% (+2%)
Con – 16% (-)
It does, in fact, chime nicely with a downward trend in the SNP’s vote share for Westminster which has been charted by IPSOS-Mori’s quarterly Scottish Opinion Monitor polls since November. There are several things to bare in mind however – both the SNP have been heavily targeting a small number of constituencies which may have harmed national vote share while increasing local vote share, 19% is still better then the party’s result in 2005 (if not as good as 2007) and many people who vote for the SNP in Holyrood elections favour one of the other parties in Westminster.
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On the streets in Edinburgh, the SNP seems to be doing well. There are plenty of anecdotes going round on the theme of “I’ve always voted Labour, but I think I might vote SNP this time…”. Party canvassers are also reporting high levels of support in Edinburgh East, which will hopefully ensure it becomes the SNP’s eighth seat. There is, however, everything to play for yet and it’s far too close to say that East will definitely turn.
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The final leaders debate was an unappetising affair. I suspect demand would have been sated with a single debate, not least because the second two have been utterly lacking in substance. Once again, Scots generally seem to thing Brown won or the SNP won, Tories think Cameron won and Lib Dems think Clegg won. Nothing has changed the game this time, not least because all three leaders wobbled frantically between left- and right-wing economic and immigration policy.
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On the immigration note, I don’t think I’ve ever met someone who thinks immigration is the biggest issue facing Britain today. Is this because of Scotland, because of my generation or just because the media give too much publicity to those who are anti-immigration?
As we prepare to gather around our TV sets and internet connections to view an event which may go down in television and election history, it’s worth looking at how irrelevant the SNP are.
A good starting point is probably the election broadcast which is going out tonight. Normally, SNP broadcasts are limited to Scotland only. Tonights broadcast is going out to the whole of the UK, on BBC 1 and 2, ITV, Channel 4 and Five at staggered times. It doesn’t just send out a message for the SNP, it sends out a message for all of the smaller social-democrat parties, reminding people that there is real choice and there are issues which Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats won’t campaign on. Just in case you miss it, it’s also on YouTube.
Also worth nothing is that in recent days there has been a consistant message across the Lib Dems, Labour and the Conservatives: “The SNP is irrelevant”.
If the SNP is irrelevant, then why do we need to be reminded of it? Why are the SNP being targeted in such a manner when the Greens and independent candidates aren’t?
Could it possibly be because the irrelevant party polled 1.5% of the UK vote in 2005 despite Scotland representing only 8% of the UK electorate? Or maybe it’s the 33% vote the party received in 2007? Or the fact that in IPSOS Mori Scottish Attitude polls since 2007, the SNP has consistently been between 10 and 15 points ahead of both the Lib Dems and the Tories?
Or maybe it’s because of what Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives don’t want people to know: in 1999, when the Scottish Parliament came into being, Scottish MPs marginalised themselves by handing nearly all Scottish domestic policy to Holyrood. Ten years later, and all of the Scottish political parties are now heading in a different direction from their Westminster brethren.
By focusing on domestic policy so heavily in this campaign, it is Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives who are themselves irrelevant to Scotland. They haven’t learnt how to play the game yet, the SNP and the Scottish Greens have.
The Westminster Machine has long been a figure within SNP campaigns, and going on Alex Salmond’s speech today, it looks like we’ll be raging against it this year. Maybe not the best slogan to launch a campaign on given Rage Against The Machine’s foul-mouthed, hard left (although generally extremely good) material, but the SNP have about as much claim to it as Labour do in this day and age. Still, it does work for the party – after all, the SNP played a big part in the initial efforts to get expenses released under Freedom of Information and in the attempt to impeach Tony Blair while being one of the few groups in Parliament to voice opinion against the war in Iraq. No doubt we’ll be hearing more about those as the election goes on.
The meat of the campaign sounds like it could be quite convincing for those outside the party. Following on from previous campaigns focused on “Scotland’s Voice”, the emphasis this year is on Local Champions representing the people. Given the tendency amongst Labour and the Tories to parachute in candidates from outside local areas and anointing the favoured candidates, it could resonate well with a Scotland which is dissatisfied with the way in which politics has been working at Westminster.
The Local Champions theme also looks at returning a voice to the people in a constituency. Having never lived in a constituency with an SNP MP, I can’t comment directly on how much interaction there is between SNP parliamentarians and their constituents, but a number of SNP MSPs do go out of their way to keep in touch with constituents. As I wrote recently, I believe that MPs should be doing more to represent their constituents, not blindly following the party whip. I believe the SNP, which is a broad kirk, is in a position to do this, although I suspect that many hardened voters will fail to look past party lines.
The remainder of the speech deals mostly with economic issues and the idea of “More Nats, Less Cuts”. This is a great way to campaign about Scotland specifically without using issues which are explicitly the preserve of Holyrood, because no matter who becomes First Minister in 2011, they are going to be facing the worst cuts Scotland has seen in generations, possibly coupled with a second, worse recession. The proposed Tory ‘Age of Austerity’ could well see the UK end up in a similar position to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. It’s the job of the SNP (and all of the Scottish parties) to ensure that doesn’t happen and that we rebuild the economy on a solid foundation before we deal with the deficit, or if not that, at least remind George Osbourne and Alastair Darling to have a glance over the works of J. M. Keynes.
This is an excellent start to the SNP’s election campaign. With Labour and Tory efforts already flagging in Scotland, it shouldn’t be hard to gain the momentum and keep it going until May 6th. Keeping the Rage Against the Machine theme going, 2010 is the year when we’re going to be taking the power back.
David Cameron has spent the past few days trying to get Scotland to play the same ball game he’s playing. The opening salvo in this play for less then a tenth of the Westminster seats in Scotland was an interview with the Herald prior to the Tory conference at Perth Ice Rink, followed by his keynote speech and new remarks in today’s papers.
Yet Cameron doesn’t seem to really know what to do with Scotland. It was only a few months ago that he denounced Alex Salmond for trying to get in on the leaders debates, and only a few days ago that he lambasted Salmond as “fooling no-one”. It’s somewhat ironic that a man who’s manifesto is largely based on abstract and ill-thought-out aims should be claiming that a man who has always been open about his key policy is attempting to fool anyone.
It’s even stranger that Cameron should want to deal with this fool, claiming:
If elected, one of the first things I will do is come to Scotland and meet with the First Minister. That will signal the beginning of a new relationship, a fresh start based on mutual respect. It will be good for Scotland, good for Britain and good for the Union. [Source]
Strangely, Donald Dewar, Henry McLeish, Jack MacConnell and Alex Salmond have all led functional governments without the Prime Minister sitting over their shoulder. Indeed, Dewar, MacConnell and Salmond have all gained reputations for for not pandering to Prime Ministers. But lets read on…
It’s a disgrace that during one of the worst economic crises in our modern history…when the foundations of the Scottish economy were rocked…Gordon Brown didn’t meet Alex Salmond for almost a year.
And it’s shameful that during one of the most emotionally-charged moments in our recent history…when the Lockerbie bomber was released from jail to return home to Libya where he still is today…the Scottish Government and British Government refused to cooperate. [Source]
Given the importance of the Banking Sector to Scotland, it probably would have been good to see more agreement between the two Governments during the fall of HBOS and RBS. However, by acting independently of each other Brown and Salmond were able to accomplish different tasks – Brown made provisions to ensure the banks didn’t simply get wiped from the face of the Earth, while Salmond worked with bankers in Scotland in an effort to ensure that jobs wouldn’t be lost and Edinburgh would remain a banking centre. Neither accomplished their goals fully, but with Brown approaching from the reserved, Treasury angle and Salmond approaching from the devolved business angle, it worked quite well. Probably far better and quicker then if protracted negotiations between Brown and Salmond had taken place.
As regards the Lockerbie Bomber, there was no need for the Scottish and British Governments to cooperate. There was no issue between Westminster and Holyrood. The Scottish Justice Minister made a decision about a prisoner in his custody, and Westminster has no more right to have a say in that then the Scottish Government has to have a say about the release of Ronnie Biggs (held in an English Prison and released by Home Secretary Alan Johnston).
This is starting to get a big worrying. It does look rather like David Cameron wants to interfere with the process of Government in Scotland. We’d better read on…
It should be natural for us to want devolution to work. Not just because it is a weapon against the Nationalists’ obsession with independence. But because devolution should be central to our whole political approach. [Source]
Oops. Clearly no-one told Cameron that he’s not actually meant to remind us that we only got devolution because of the SNP “threat”. A bit of an arrogant slip up, given that the first and last sentences in that quote are common sense. Does it possibly hint at the long awaited devolution for England?
Today we are the party that passionately believes that local is best, the party that knows that the more power people have, the more responsible they become, the more fulfilled they are…we are the party of decentralisation. [Source]
It’s nice of Cameron to acknowledge that Scotland has become more responsible. The decentralisation rhetoric will very likely come back to haunt him however, with it forming the perfect basis for an Alex Salmond speech. “David Cameron says the Tories are the party of decentralisation, well you don’t get much more decentralised then devolution max.”
Whoever is Scotland’s First Minister, I would be a Prime Minister who acts on the voice of the Scottish people and works for consent and consensus. And whenever the precious Union between our two countries is under threat, this party – the party of the Union – will rise to the challenge and defend it with all our heart and all our strength. [Source]
Party of Union the Tories may be, but this is one of the most contradictory portions of Cameron’s speech. Surely, if the people of Scotland want Independence, he has no mandate to stop them. Especially when you consider that he wants to…
[give] people the chance to make change happen through local referendums, giving neighbourhoods the right to run parks and public places. [Source]
But Scottish people won’t get the right to vote on their constitutional future?
Overall, Cameron doesn’t say much other then this hypocritical grandstanding. The one policy which is mentioned in the coverage is:
Councils will get “unprecedented freedom to do what they think is right for their area” [Source]
Given that Local Authorities are a devolved matter, this policy will have no effect in Scotland what so ever. It is mentioned in one of the other articles linked to that Cameron discussed the NHS in a speech at a Scottish press event, but this, likewise, is nearly entirely devolved. Cameron isn’t even able to come up with campaign issued which will affect the Scottish people.
Cameron doesn’t even try to hide his blatant hypocrisy. Despite the previous apologies for opposing devolution and the claims that devolution is part of British Politics, it seems clear that Cameron wants to interfere in a country where he has little support and no mandate to rule. With luck, he will find himself opposed by the three-headed hydra of the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems, because if there is one thing which will bring these three parties together for the good of Scotland, it’s the threat posed by David Cameron.
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It is worth noting that Cameron has also waded into the debate over Nicola Sturgeon, although he at least does so from a far more even manner then then Iain Gray and his cohorts. He even goes so far as to admit that he’s done similar things for constituents. It’s rather bizarre, given he’s spent two days lambasting Sturgeon’s superior.
Today, both Scotland on Sunday and the Sunday Herald reported the results of a private Tory Party poll. Conducted by Opinion Research Business, one of the less common polling organisations in Britain, it shows that in the 11 Scottish seats which the Tories are targeting, 54% of respondents believe that David Cameron should be the next Prime Minister with 46% for Gordon Brown. In a further question, 73% of respondents agreed that Labour was “tired and failing”.
This poll, despite being heralded as a boost for the Scottish Tories must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Unlike the polls regularly conducted by a selection of newspapers and TV stations, the full results of this poll have not been published. Neither has the text of the questions. Without the actual text of the questions, it is difficult to ascertain the potential bias brought about through the formation of the question or the weighting of results. All we have to go on as to ascertaining the full statistical relevance of this poll is the press release which was issued by Conservative HQ to various media outlets, but which was not made public.
From the Herald we can glean that the sample size was 1,010 and from Scotland on Sunday, that it was conducted only in the eleven Tory target constituencies, giving 91 respondents per constituency. Given that 1,000 respondents is a typical sample size for many polls conducted over the whole of the UK, this is a good sample size per constituency with a standard margin of error (±3%). However, given there are 59 Scottish constituencies, this cannot be said to be representative of all Scottish constituencies , with a large proportion of Scotland consisting of a very different economic and social make-up from these 11. Many of the other constituencies are also out-with the reach of the Tories, who are pressed into fourth or even fifth place in some seats.
So, can it be said that the Conservatives have received a boost in Scotland? Yes and no. They seem to be gaining more support in their target constituencies. This is unsurprising given their gains in England and Wales. Yet this does not accurately reflect the opinions of non-Labour and Tory supporters, with a 100% result for the main question not giving any option for “Neither” or “Nick Clegg”. There are also two interesting polls which can be used to illustrate the issues with this poll.
The first of these dates from September last year, assessing how the Scottish public believed Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Alex Salmond were doing in their jobs. It was conducted by YouGov with a sample of 1,000 people with results in percent of respondents. It does show that Cameron is ahead of Brown slightly as far as satisfaction goes, but Alex Salmond far out-strips them both.
The second is from a Ipsos Mori poll conducted in November which assessed voting intentions in Scotland. You can find the full report here, but in summery, it affirms that Labour and the SNP are the dominant parties in Scotland with more then twice the number of people intending to vote for the SNP or Labour then for the Tories in the next election. Those intending to vote for the Tories actually declines between 2006 and the end of 2009. 61% of respondents also favour a Labour Government on the basis that it would be better for Scotland then a Tory one.
The turning point for the Tories in Scotland isn’t here yet.
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For reference, the 11 Tory target constituencies are (in order from South to North): Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (Lib), Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (Con), Dumfries & Galloway (Lab), Renfrewshire East (Lab) Edinburgh South (Lab), Argyll & Bute (Lib), Stirling (Lab), Ochil and South Perthshire (Lab), Perth & North Perthshire (SNP), Angus (SNP). They are all reasonably wealthy areas, many of them reliant on farming and tourism to drive the local economy. Many of them were also held by Tories prior to the 1997 Labour landslide. Jeff at SNP Tactical Voting has discussed the margins and the potential tactical voting opportunities in depth.
